A trick that I find fascinating is the way an idea can surface today and by tomorrow the media is running with it until it becomes an intuitive fact. A good example of this phenomenon took place during the Pittsburgh coaching quest. The local media was naturally going to be covering the search heavily, and the in-house options were labeled and discussed as the prime candidates early on.
But there was never any actual evidence that either had the inside track to the job. Really it made just as much sense then as it does now that the organization would want to snuff out the country club atmosphere and get a fresh start with a passionate young coach. Just like last time. Furthermore, both Whis and Grimm had been considered and passed over more than once by other teams, while Tomlin was considered a star on the rise by anyone you asked around the league. The Steelers brain trust is a thoughtful group, able to block out the noise and the pressure to analyze situations and make favorable decisions. They base their analyses on the properties of reality, not the media-conceived alter-universe where the sky can become green if the notion passes over the airwaves enough times. And, in reality, would you rather seize the next big thing a year too early, or pick at discarded leftovers after a year growing staler?
Despite the writing on the wall the media had already decided that it was a two-horse race. The thought did have some sense to it, a crucial element for the trick to work, and once you’d heard it fifty times it’s utter correctness became obvious and second-nature.
I bring this up because the same thing happens every year around draft time. Early in the season if you asked anyone what they thought about Jamarcus Russell at pick one they’d have laughed. Certainly big games and big plays have had plenty to do with his rise, but have the essentials really changed that much? Big arm, big presence, big project? But once Mel Kiper floated the angle that Brady Quinn, while surely looking like the top pick, might be in for a fight if big Jamarcus came out, well the race was on. Because maybe he’s right. And as a scrapper in the ultra-competitive arena of sports reporting you’re not about to give pause either way. You don’t have the seconds to spare, and frankly you really don’t know how to evaluate the comment with any degree of scout’s sophistication anyway.
This isn’t to suggest that Russell isn’t a fine prospect or that his rise to the status of the elite was based entirely on madness and hype. I’ve simply chosen to use him as an example because I think his evolving public perception is representative of seeing what you think you’re supposed to see when you look at the tape. If all you read about on the web were his warts then I think that’s what you’d see when he’s shown on TV. If Kiper decides to drop him out of the top 10 we’ll all find ourselves agreeing rather quickly. “Too many overthrows,” we’ll write. “Not enough touch.”
We’ve gone through this already with Brady Quinn after all. Timing is everything for a prospect, and Quinn was on the market and under the microscope for entirely too long. We started to hear all about his faults when the media machine simply ran out of positive things to share with us. After all, the folks at ESPN can’t simply report that nothing has changed each week and expect to collect a pay check.
So think about the prospects that have been taken and discussed in this mock draft so far. If you had to pick a player to bump up a spot or two who would it be? I’m not real big on citing another man’s opinion as if it proves anything, but Todd McShay made some interesting changes to his mock today. Did any of you think of Gaines Adams a second ago? Because McShay has him going to Detroit at #2. My guess is that pick will just kind of feel right to everyone by this time next week. “Sure, Gaines at two, can’t pass on the next Peppers.”
The ability to block out all the noise is what separates the best decision-makers from the also-rans. Watching, listening and learning without prejudice is the only way to find and add value to any situation. Great organizations have the guts to take the road less traveled and the conviction not to flinch when criticized for it. So that last coaching hire, player signing, or draft pick is a mockery in your book? Maybe you’re just under the spell that someone else has broken.
The Great Awakening 